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CFB Week 5 (Early)

CFB Week 5

CFB Week 5 Early

Saturday! I’m sure Saturday is quickly becoming your favorite day of the week thanks to a hot start in CFB through the first 4 weeks. Our run continued in the THU-FRI slate where we swept all three sites! We have some pretty attractive games in the early slate this week… let’s dig in! We will follow the same format with 2 cash, 2 GPP for FanDuel, 1 cash, 2 GPP for DraftKings and 1 cash, 1GPP for Fantasy Aces.

Quarterbacks

  • Seth Russell
  • Greg Ward Jr.
  • Luke Falk
  • Brandon Doughty
  • Trevone Boykin
  • Jared Goff
  • Dane Evans
  • Tommy Armstrong

Quarterback is extremely deep here in the early slate with 8 different players that I think are truly cash game viable. Some would be seen as pretty contrarian plays, but they all rank very well in projection and have average or better matchups.

Seth Russell – Seth Russell is the most expensive QB in the slate but the top QB’s are basically all in the same pricing tier so he I recommend reaching up for Russell if you’re spending more than 8500 at QB in cash games. If you follow CFB at all you know Baylor is a very high scoring offense. Remember how awesome the Texas Tech vs TCU game was for DFS last week? Replace TCU’s offense with an even better Baylor offense… Yeah, It’s going to be fun. Russell is the safest source of points in the early slate.

Greg Ward Jr. – Does anyone remember a few weeks ago when we crushed everyone with Bakey Mayfield out of nowhere (how it probably seemed to most) as he had the best game of his career? Greg Ward is an even bigger peice of the offense for his team and they get their shot at the Tulsa defense this week. Ward is a legit dual threat QB who should have a huge day. We love Greg Ward because he will be under owned with the higher profile schools/players like Russell and Boykin available for a similar price tag.

Dane Evans – Evans is another guy we have used this season. We are interested in both sides of the Houston vs Tulsa game this week and Dane Evans has a reasonable price tag. If you elect to go with Evans you will want to handcuff him with Keevan Lucas, especially on full PPR sites.

Running Backs

  • Dalvin Cook
  • Ezekiel Elliot
  • Derick Henry
  • Shock Lindwood
  • Qadree Ollison
  • Matt Dayes
  • Kenneth Farrow
  • Zack Langer

Dalvin Cook – Cook is a core cash game play for the early slate on FanDuel and Fantasy Aces. Cook is going to be heavily owned on FanDuel but that is just something we will have to live with because of the price tag, increased role and game script. The weather is going to really limit the passing game which should give Cook more time with the ball in his hands. I would avoid Cook on DraftKings at that price.

Ezekiel Elliot – Ohio State is a 3 TD favorite this week which means we could see a heavy does of Elliot. We are much more likely to pay up at QB and WR on FanDuel so we are most interested in Elliot on DraftKings in tournaments where we have a great shot at the bonus points for going over 100 yards rushing.

Qadree Ollison – Ollison is the one play that has a little unknown this week but I really trust our model and process so I’m going to recommend him. The good thing here is if I’m right, we will have a very low owned runningback. Ollison gets a banged up VT defense in a very poor weather situation which will force Pitt to run the ball. Ollison has been fairly quiet lately but he rushed for 200+ yards on 16 carries in week 1. Ollison will definitely be the #1 back this week and pairing him with Cook really opens up your roster to target the safefty in QB and top tier WR plays.

Matt Dayes – Dayes is the more obvious cheap running back play this week in another game that will have poor conditions. Dayes is a valuable back because he catches passes out of the backfield and we should see a large dose of short passes if they find themselves in passing situations.

Wide Receivers

  • Corey Coleman
  • Josh Doctson
  • Keevan Lucas
  • Aaron Burbridge
  • Demarcus Ayers
  • Jakeem Grant
  • Gabe Marks
  • Steven Dunbar

Corey Coleman/Josh Doctson – Coleman and Doctson are the obvious top plays at WR if you have the cap space to spend at WR. From a game theory perspective we will list Coleman as the optimal strategy here if you’re reaching for Seth Russell like I assume most of you will be. Doctson is coming off a huge week so we will see massive ownership levels (probably still good reason). There isn’t much to say other than these are two of the best WR’s in CFB playing on teams who score a ton of points.

Keevan Lucas – Lucas is an elite WR talent that plays at a small school (Tulsa). Lucas is a favorite target of Dane Evans and they have a nice game script where they are +6.5 underdogs at home in a game with a total of 81+. This means Tulsa will be throwing a lot keeping the game competitive.

Demarcus Ayers – Ayers would be a GPP only play 95% of the time but as I continue to dig into this matchup I actually think he is cash game viable this week. Ayers is a decent way to get exposure to Houston/Ward Jr. if you aren’t using him.

Gabe Marks – Luke Falk and the WSU offense have huge upside where they could be the #1 offense of this early slate if things don’t go exactly as planned in these other games. A WSU stack is an amazing tournament play in the early slate and it starts with Gabe Marks.

Tight Ends

  • Tyler Higbee
  • Jaylen Samuels
  • Jeb Blazevich
  • J.P. Holtz

Tyler Higbee – Higbee grabs the top spot once again this week at tight end. We are only 4 weeks into the season but many of you are now well aware of how poor of a DFS position TE is in the college game. Higbee is one of the few tight ends who receieves targets on par with mid range wide receivers. (We will probably just leave this pasted here all season)

Jaylen Samuels – Samuels is another high usage Tight End (my CFB standards) that has a decent game script. We are projecting the poor weather to actually benefit Samuels in the passing game this week.

 

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