DFS MLB Plays: September 29th


9/29 DFS MLB Plays

Full slate tonight so we will have 2 Cash and 3 GPP lineups on FanDuel and 1 Cash, 2 GPP on DraftKings tonight.

Pitching Rankings

  1. Clayton Kershaw
  2. Madison Bumgarner
  3. Tyson Ross
  4. Cole Hamels
  5. Johnny Cueto – Strong DK Value
  6. Michael Pineda – Weather issues
  7. Mike Fiers
  8. Bartolo Colon – Weather issues
  9. Marcus Stroman
  10. Michael Wacha – GAME IS PPD DO NOT ROSTER
  11. Robbie Ray
  12. Adam Conley

Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner are the top two pitchers in the model tonight which seems pretty obvious at this point. Kershaw is listed as the road favorite at -125 which doesn’t give him the strong win probability that we are used to but the opportunity to rack up strikeouts and pitch deep into the game is definitely still alive against a watered down Giants offense in another pitchers park. The price tag is aggressive but not unrealistic tonight with all the value on FanDuel. Madison Bumgarner makes a nice tournament play tonight because you will see reduced ownership levels due to the matchup with Kershaw.

Tyson Ross – Ross ranks very well in the model today but he is a little higher variance play than the group around him (Kershaw, Bumgarner, Hamels and Cueto). Ross has shown a very strong K rate that is pushing 10/9 but the number of pitches needed for his K rate hurts some of the upside of pitching deep into the game. The price point on Ross is very attractive on FanDuel where I think he is a fine secondary cash play and a great tournament play against a watered down Brewers lineup on the road in San Diego in a large negative park shift.

DFS MLB Catcher Recommendations

  • Travis d’Arnaud
  • Evan Gattis
  • Miguel Montero
  • Wellington Castillo
  • Stephen Vogt

A few of these guys have weather concerns tonight so ultimately the weather will play a large roll here. Evan Gattis will likely become the top play if the Mets game have major weather issues closers to lock. Stephen Vogt is a fine punt option if you’re paying up for Kershaw and need cap relief.

1st Base Rankings

  • Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo ranks very well in the model but there are a few weather concerns here so I think it’s safe to pivot to Goldschmidt or Edwin if you’re planning to spend at 1st base.
  • Paul Goldschmidt – Goldy becomes the top play excluding price with the weather in the Cubs game. This is a great matchup at home in a hitters park.
  • Edwin Encarnacion
  • Albert Pujols – Pujols makes a lot of sense in cash games on FanDuel at his moderate price tag. Pujols is streaky hitter who hits his HR’s in bunches and he has a nice shot at anoter HR tonight against Bassitt.
  • Mike Napoli – Napoli is a another strong cash games target if you’re paying up for Kershaw and need to save cap space. The Rangers have a nice matchup against a young LHP making a start on the road in Texas.

2nd Base Rankings

  • Jose Altuve
  • Daniel Murphy – Weather risks
  • Jason Kipnis
  • Brian Dozier
  • Logan Forsythe

Jose Altuve is the clear cut top play here tonight where the Astros are basically playing must win games. If you have been with us for a while you know we love to target Altuve against LHP and tonight is no different against Elias in Seattle. Altuve is the safest source of production at the position and you could argue that he has the most upside as well. As we get to crunch time we gain extra value with Altuve because he is likely going to be looking to run as much as possible once he gets on base. We will just leave that copied from last night. Altuve is the top play at 2B tonight in all formats.

3rd Base Rankings

  • Kris Bryant
  • Josh Donaldson
  • Alex Rodriguez
  • Adrian Beltre
  • Mike Moustakas

Kris Bryant grabs the top spot tonight if the weather holds off and they play this game. Bryant and the Cubs are on the road against the Reds which guarantees a 9th inning team AB and a good shot at an extra AB for Bryant in a large positive park shift. Great spot for Bryant if the game plays.

Josh Donaldson had a very disappointing game last night but he ranks very well again tonight against a pitcher who has struggled with the HR ball this season giving up over 1.5 HR per 9 innings.

Mike Moustakas is a nice contrarian play tonight against Samardzija who has really struggled with lefties this season.

ShortStop Rankings

  • Carlos Correa
  • Francisco Lindor
  • Jhonny Peralta
  • Erick Aybar
  • Elvis Andrus

Carlos Correa earns the top spot once again. The gap between Correa and the rest is rather large thanks to the unique power and speed skill set the youngster brings to the plate each night. Correa and the Astros could really use a win tonight on the road in Seattle. Another copy and paste from last night… Correa is easily the top play at the position if you have the cap space.

Erick Aybar is the most realistic cash game option if you can’t afford the price tag on Correa. Aybar and the Angels are in must win mode tonight and he is leading off on the road so there is high probability of the extra AB tonight.

Elvis Andrus is a nice contrarian play tonight against a LHP at home in Texas.

Outfield Rankings

Outfield Tier 1:

Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, David Peralta, A.J. Pollock, Alex Gordon, Jacoby Ellsbury, George Springer, Kole Calhoun

Outfield Tier 2:

Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, Jose Bautista, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Jorge Soler, Delino DeShields, Ben Zobrist

Mike’s Top Six Team Stacks

Rangers – DeShields, Beltre, Andrus, Napoli, Fielder

Cubs – Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, Fowler, Montero

Astros – Altuve, Correa, Gattis, Springer

Royals – Gordon, Zobrist, Hosmer, Cain

Diamondbacks – Peralta, Pollock, Goldshcmidt, Castillo

Mets – Granderson, Murphy, Cespedes, Wright, Duda


Good Luck!

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