Hawks vs Warriors Predictions

Hawks vs Warriors Predictions

Hawks vs Warriors Predictions

Hawks vs Warriors Predictions

Tonight the Warriors and Hawks square off in what could be the most anticipated game of the NBA season. The Hawks 19 game win streak was just snapped by Pelicans, but they still hold a 11 game home win streak that will be on the line tonight against the Warriors. Meanwhile, six of the eight Golden State losses have come on the road this season. For the Warriors, the biggest key to success tonight is to keep Andrew Bogut out of foul trouble and on the floor. For the Hawks to have a shot at winning this game they must limit the offensive rebounds allowed to the Warriors. Let’s look at how these two teams matchup statistically.

Points/Game 111.4 103.4
Opp Points/Game 99.8 96.5
Fastbreak Pts/Game 21.4 11.8
Pts in Paint/Game 45.9 41.3
Win % – All 0.83 0.82

The first thing we notice about this game is the large gap in fastbreak points per game where Golden State has an advantage of nearly 10 points! This is important to note because both the Warriors and Hawks score a large % of their points from the 3 point shot (28.2% for GSW and 28.4% for ATL, ranking 3rd anf 4th highest in the NBA). Both teams take a lot of 3 point shots which should lead to long rebounds and more fastbreak opportunities which greatly favors the Warriors.

Offensive Efficiency
Assists/Game 27.3 25.9
Assists/FGM 0.651 0.679
Assists/Turnover 1.833 1.839
Free Throw % 77.50% 77.00%
Three Point % 38.90% 38.80%
Two Point % 52.70% 51.00%
Effective FG % 54.40% 53.30%
Shooting % 48.40% 47.20%
Shooting Efficiency 1.137 1.129

When we look at the offensive efficiency data we discover how similar (and impressive) both teams are. The Warriors and Hawks play very unselfish basketball, ranking 1st and 2nd in assists per game. Both teams also rank in the top 4 in assists/turnover ratio.

Defensive Efficiency
Total Rebounds/Game 52.6 49.3
Off Rebounds/Game 10.3 8.5
Def Rebounds/Game 34.7 32.5
Blocks/Game 6.2 4.5
Opp Blocks/Game 3.6 4.7
Steals/Game 9.4 8.7
Opp Steals/Game 8.6 7.1
Steals/Play 8.10% 8.10%
Turnovers & Fouls
Turnovers/Game 14.9 14.1
Opp Turnovers/Game 16.5 15.7
Turnovers/Play 13.20% 13.30%

Statistically, the Warriors have a slight edge in most categories. If this game were played in a neutral environment I would like the Warriors -4.5-5 points. At 4:00AM the line is sitting at GSW -1.5 on the road at Atlanta with a total of 214.5 points. We like the Warriors anywhere from -1.5-2.5. RotoMinds computers are projecting the Warriors to win by 3.4 points


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