Monday DFS MLB Plays


Monday, July 6th DFS MLB Plays

A nice 11 game slate tonight but it looks like we have some major weather concerns that could make the night very interesting if it removes 2-3 of the top pitching options from the slate. This will be a great chance to take a shot on a rain game in a tournament.

Pitching Rankings

  1. Chris Sale
  2. Carlos Carrasco
  3. Dallas Keuchel
  4. A.J. Burnett
  5. James Shields
  6. Chris Heston
  7. Jon Lester
  8. Edinson Volquez
  9. John Lackey
  10. Hisashi Iwakuma

Chris Sale is the top play in projection despite a tough matchup (on paper) with the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are built to hit LHP with power and they have done just that this season against LHP. Sale is dealing with weather issues tonight so it’s pretty easy to move him to tournament only category with the asking Price on FanDuel and DraftKings. Carlos Carrasco and Dallas Keuchel are facing each other which makes things interesting for projecting the win. The reality is projecting a win for any of the top 5 pitchers is difficult tonight because after Sale vs TOR, they are all facing each other. Carrasco has big strikeout upside against the Astros who still strikeout a lot (but they are a much improved team). Carrasco will certainly be the most popular pitcher tonight with the weather in Chicago. Personally I like Keuchel just the same as I do Carrasco tonight and I think Keuchel actually has a lower floor than Carrasco despite the road matchup and not having the implied win probability in his favor. Chris Heston is a nice tournament/SP2 play tonight against a team he almost threw a perfect game against recently.

Catcher Rankings

  • Yasmani Grandal – Grandal is the top target tonight… let’s just hope he gets a top 5-6 spot in the order.
  • Buster Posey – Posey is the true top play if salary cap didn’t matter. Posey is an elite hitter against LHP and a great tournament play tonight.
  • Andrew Susac – Susac caught the game last night so who knows if he will play tonight or not after the long travel.
  • Jonathan Lucroy – Lucroy ranks well and has the best lineup spot for any catcher in the game and a nice park to hit in.

1st Base Rankings

  • Adrian Gonzalez – Adrian Gonzalez just barely edges Jose Abreu as the top play at 1B. The price tag is severely depressed on A-Gon. Great value and core target tonight.
  • Jose Abreu – Abreu might have some weather concerns tonight but he is a top target at 1B in all formats if you have the cap space.
  • Lucas Duda – Duda makes a nice tournament play tonight that has big HR upside at just 2600.
  • Joey Votto – Votto and the Reds have been awful lately but we love the matchup once again tonight.

2nd Base Rankings

  • Brian Dozier – Dozier is the clear cut top play in the model at 2B like most nights the Twins face a LHP. Dozier loves hitting at home and his profiles matchup pretty well with Chen.
  • Robinson Cano – Cano remains under priced for his skill set and he is a fine play in all formats tonight if you’re looking to save a little at 2B.
  • Ian Kinsler – Love Kinsler in tournaments tonight while he continues to lead-off for the Tigers.
  • Joe Panik
  • Neil Walker

3rd Base Rankings

  • Justin Turner – Turner ranks as the top play at 3B over Donaldson who has a matchup with Chris Sale. Turner gets O’Sullivan and should benefit from multiple RBI opportunities thanks to the elite matchup his left handed hitting teammates have tonight.
  • Josh Donaldson – I like Donaldson a lot tonight against Chris Sale (in tournaments only)
  • Trevor Plouffe – Plouffe vs LHP… you know the drill. Great play in all formats.
  • Manny Machado – Price point makes Machado a tournament only option for us tonight but he does rank well.

ShortStop Rankings

Like most nights, SS will come down to the best combination of lineup spot/value and focus less on actual projection of the players.

  • Jhonny Peralta – Peralta projects as the top SS in the model despite the tough road matchup with Lester. 
  • Jimmy Rollins – Rollins gets to face his former team in a +EV matchup but he we will likely have a poor lineup spot.
  • Carlos Correa –
  • Starlin Castro – Fine value play here if the game looks clear from the rain. Castro is minimum price on FanDuel.

Outfield Rankings

Joc Pederson is easily the top play and the #1 overall hitter in the model. Sean O’Sullivan really struggles with LHB and the Dodgers have some very good lefty bats. The price point makes him a near must play (obviously never a must play in baseball) in cash games tonight.

Outfield Tier 1:

Bryce Harper, Andre Ethier, Denard Span, Yasiel Puig, Jose Bautista, Torii Hunter, Ryan Raburn, Adam Jones

Outfield Tier 2:

Gerardo Parra, Joey Butler, Kevin Kiermaier, Andrew McCuthen, Ryan Braun, Seth Smith, Chris Coghlan

Mike’s Top Four Team Stacks

Dodgers – Pederson, Gonzalez, Turner, Grandal, Ethier (Dodgers will be very highly owned tonight)

Reds – Votto, Frazier, Hamilton, Phillips, Bruce

Giants – Posey, Susac, Duffy, Crawford

Tigers – Martinez, Martinez, Kinsler, Avila, Cespedes (Very contrarian GPP shot)

Good luck!

Be sure to use the our optimal lineups when they are posted later this afternoon.

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