NFL DFS Week 2
Welcome back! I hope everyone had a profitable week 1 on the NFL season. Our Thursday lineups were a great start to the weekend in Week 1. Week 2 will follow the same format as week 1 where we have 1 cash and 2 GPP teams on FD/DK for Thursday lock games and 1 total lineup on Fantasy Aces. *****Sunday schedule will be updated on Friday night*****
This week is a little different where we have a relatively unattractive Thursday night game. Our interest in Thursday games will be playing to hopefully capture people playing too many players from this game. Travis Kelce is really the only play that we have any cash game interest in tonight. If you’re someone who is playing mass multi entry tournaments tonight is the night to join those tournaments with your Sunday-Monday players.
NFL DFS Week 2 NFL Quaterback Rankings
- Andrew Luck
- Drew Brees
- Tony Romo
- Sam Bradford
- Aaron Rodgers – Huge upside play. Waiting to make sure Cobb is still playing this week.
- Tom Brady
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Matt Ryan
- Russell Wilson
- Alex Smith
Andrew Luck grabs the top spot in the model in week 2. The Colts were awful in Week 1 when they got crushed by the Bills on the road and they lost T.Y. Hilton with an injury. This week the Colts play their home opener on Monday Night Football against the Jets. T.Y. Hilton has been upgraded to questionable so he could play with that extra day of rest with the Monday night game. Luck managed to score over 18 fantasy points last week while his team seemed to struggle moving the ball against the Bills defense. The important factors to note here is we are projecting the Bills to be a top 5 defense this season and the Colts are back at home on Monday Night. Vegas has the Colts as a -7 home favorite with a total of 47. Luck will be a perfect example of a low owned high upside play this week because of the concerns with T.Y. Hilton and not knowing his status until after contests have locked. I’m still interestd in Luck with or without Hilton. I think Luck will look to get Fleener involved this week and I’m confident Andre Johnson will find the endzone in his Colts home debut.
Drew Brees – Brees gets the same defense that Marriota just crushed in week 1. The game script is good as long as the scoring comes in the air and not in the form of Mark Ingram rushes from the red zone. Losing Jimmy Graham is a huge hit to Brees in the red zone. Another knock against Brees for me is how well the Saints defense ranks in our model… a defensive score could really mess up the game script for Brees. Brees is the most difficult decision of the week for us because of how good the matchup is on paper.
Sam Bradford – Bradford remains underpriced again this week. It will take a few weeks for the pricing to catch up to the pace of play he is playing for the Eagles this season. Bradford threw 52 passes in week 1 in a game that didn’t have quite the pace that we thought it would. The Eagles have the highest team total this week as they make their home debut after suffering a disappointing loss to the Falcons in week 1. Bradford is an elite cash game play as long as he is throwing 50+ times per game.
Nick Foles – Nick Foles is a very interesting QB target in week 2 against Washington. Foles and the Rams looked pretty good in the passing game in Week 1 in a tough matchup with the Seahawks. Recommeding players from a game that is tied for the lowest total on the board isn’t something we do often, but the price tag is right on Foles and the Rams are a very good team that will make the playoffs this year on the shoulders of Nick Foles. He won’t be $6500 again after he throws for 2-3 touchdowns in week 2.
Tony Romo, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger all project well enough in our model to be used in all formats. Using one of these guys in cash games would be a contrarian approach, but one that I’m fine with in the NFL if there is a game script that you like there. This group of players is one that you will definitely target in isolated spots in tournaments this week because they will all come with relatively low ownership levels because of how similar they are. Romo should be paired with Witten, Brady with Edelman/Gronk, Ryan with Julio Jones AND Roddy White (Roddy White will find the endzone this week) and Big Ben should be paired with Antonio Brown and a few shares of Heath Miller.
NFL DFS Week 2 NFL Running Back Rankings
- Matt Forte
- Jamaal Charles
- Eddie Lacy
- Justin Forsett
- DeMarco Murray
- Marshawn Lynch
- Adrian Peterson
- Carlos Hyde
- Mark Ingram (Depends on Spiller)
- Jeremy Hill
- Lamar Miller
- Chris Ivory
Matt Forte – Forte is once again the top play at running back… Forte will likely be the top play 90% of the time this season because of his elite pass catching ability out of the backfield combined with his 100 yard rushing upside. The game script is setting up nicely for Forte this week since the Bears have lost Brandon Marshall in the off-season, Alshon Jeffery is the #1 WR and he will be locked up by Patrick Peterson this week which means we will see Forte have several targets out of the backfield. You’re paying a premium for Forte but generally you get what you pay for when it comes to Forte.
Justin Forsett – Forsett had a tough time with the Broncos run defense on the road in week 1 but he draws a much more favorable mathcup and game script in week 2. The Raiders are projecting to be one of the worste defenses in the league this season. Baltimore is a -6 road favorite this week which sets up nicely for Forsett and the running game. Forsett did manages to catch a few passes in week 1 which is very encouraging for his DFS value/floor moving forward.
Mark Ingram – Another guy who gives us a lot to be excited about if he is going to catch passes out of the backfield. The value in Ingram is very dependent on the status of Spiller this week, so this is a situation that we will avoid in Thursday games until we have more information.
Chris Ivory – Ivory is interesting this week because the game script doesn’t exactly set up nicely for him and his team is on the road. The Colts are a decent team but they have struggled with the run defense at times and Ivory should receive a good number of rushing attempts this week.
Lamar Miller – Miller was very frustrating for us in Week 1 but he has a nice mathcup in Week 2 against the Jags. The game script is a little better this week as the Dolphins are basically a touchdown favorite compared to -3 last week. Miller should see a few more carries this week and I think he is able to find the endzone to hit value. I don’t think Miller has huge upside this week but I think he is going to have a respectable game from a middle of the road price point.
Carlos Hyde – Hyde might be a trendy pick this week after having a huge week 1 winning people millions of dollars in DFS tournaments. Hyde benefited greatly from the Reggie Bush injury and the game flow allowing the 49ers to keep the ball on the ground. The game script isn’t quite as friendly this week as the 49ers visit the Steelers where they are +6 underdogs. Hyde is still a high upside play but expectations should be limited heading into week 2.
Jeremy Hill – Jeremy Hill has emegred as the clear cut number 1 option in the backfield for the Bengals. The only thing that will limit the snaps for Hill is the game script if the Bengals fall behind by 2 scores they will likely use Gio Bernard who is a better back in the passing game. The Bengals are at home this week against the Chargers in what should be one of the more competitive games of the week. Jeremy Hill is a fine target in all formats with multiple TD upside.
NFL DFS Week 2 NFL Wide Receiver Rankings
- Anotonio Brown
- Julio Jones
- Odell Beckham Jr.
- Jordan Matthews
- Demaryius Thomas
- Kennan Allen
- Randall Cobb
- A.J. Green
- Julian Edelman
- Alshon Jeffery
Antonio Brown – Brown is a name you will get sick of seeing because he will be a top 3 WR every single week this season regardless of matchup. Antonio Brown remains the safest WR in fantasy football where you can expect double digit targets every week from Big Ben. Brown is similar to Matt Forte where you’re going to have to payup for the production, but the floor is very high for DFS purposes.
Julio Jones – Julio Jones was our #1 WR in the model for the Sunday slate and he came through for us in a big way with 9 catches, 142 yards and 2 TD’s. The Falcons are on the road this week against the Giants in another game that should be a competitive shootout where Jones is relied on heavily in the passing game. There isn’t must to say about Jiluo at this point other than he is truly an elite reciever with a great body to break tackles and rack up the yards after catch.
Odell Beckham Jr. – Beckham seems to be one of the best tournament plays in week 2 after a very poor fantasy performance in week 1. Beckham has big upside against the Falcons like we saw from Jordan Matthews in week 1. We love Beckham and Eli Manning handcuffed in tournaments this week.
Mike Evans – Evans is supposed to return from injury this week to make is season debut against the Saints. Evans had a huge rookie year and we expect him to pick up where he left off this season. One thing that benefits Evans is the fact that the game script is almost always going to favor him in the passing game because of how weak the rest of the team is.
Terrance Williams/Cole Beasley – Dez Bryant is OUT for 4-8 weeks so the Cowboys see some drastic changes in targets this week and going forward. Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley are the two WR’s who will benefit from most from the Bryant injury. Terrance Williams is the deep play guy who Romo will be looking for as they take shots down the field. Cole Beasley is going to benift more in the short passing game. Beasley carries extra value on full PPR sites where we expect him to rack up several short catches. Beasley is cash game viable at his DK price tag.
Julian Edelman – Edelman looks to be a PPR monster again this season making him a cash game consideration even with an elevated price tag. The Patriots have a tougher matchup on paper this week against the Bills but Edelman will be heavily involved as one of Brady’s favorite targets. T.Y. Hilton was quitely having a monster game in the first half against the Bills and we are expecting a similar performance from Edelman this week.
NFL DFS Week 2 NFL Tight End Rankings
- Rob Gronkowski
- Travis Kelce
- Jimmy Graham
- Jason Witten
- Martellus Bennett
- Tyle Eifert
- Greg Olsen
- Heath Miller
Rob Gronkowski – Gronk is similar to Brees this weekend because it presents and intersting challenge for us. There is no question he should still be the top TE in every single projection model in the world even against a geat defense like the Bills. The negatives are the Bills D and the road game. The positives are Brady will still be looking to Gronk in the passing game and he is the clear cut red zone target for the Patriots. The price point makes him a much better tournament play this week… the question is what kind of exposure are we looking for in tournaments with Gronk. There are several viable TE options with good game scripts this week.
Jason Witten – Witten had a nice game in week 1 and the expanded role will be there again in week 2 with Dez Bryant on the sidelines. Witten isn’t a lock to find the end zone but we can pretty comfortably project double digit targets in the passing game which makes him a core target in all formats.
Travis Kelce – Kelce had a huge week 1 for us and we will be back for more tonight in the Thursday night games. Kelce projects as a top play at the TE position tonight despite a tougher matchup against the Broncos D. This game is at home where Kelce is a fan favorite and I’m expecting big things from the Cheifs this season and it starts tonight at home against a division rival.
Heath Miller/Jordan Reed – Both guys are playing on teams that are missing key offensive peices that have allowed each player to receive additional targets. Heath Miller is a nice check down option for Big Ben and Jordan Reed is a reliable option that Cousins can trust. Both guys make great tournament plays this week and this is how I would play them… Heath Miller I would handcuff with Big Ben and Jordan Reed I would sprinkle in as a stand alone play in your tournament lineups.
NFL DFS Week 2 Defense Rankings
- St. Louis Rams
- Miami Dolphins
- Baltimore Ravens
- New Orleans Saints
- Indianapolis Colts
The most basic defensive strategy would be to look for teams who have the lowest team total and to pick the defense playing against them. If we target the lowest team totals this week we get the Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens as the two top defenses. Digging a little deeper, the St. Louis Rams project as the top defense in our model with huge special teams upside against a Redskins team that is a mess with a INT prone QB like Kirk Cousins. The Indianapolis Colts are one of my favorite long shot gpp defenses of the week at home against the Jets.
NFL DFS Week 2 Kicker Rankings
- Justin Tucker
- Matt Bryant
- Andrew Franks
- Josh Brown – Very strong target who is minimum price with a nice game script.
- Zach Hocker
Adam Vinatieri is another great tournament option after a poor week 1 on the road he gets to kick at home in the dome on Monday Night Football. The game script is pretty decent for Vinatieri this week.