Welcome back! Week 2 was a wild one with many of the top projected running backs, defenses and tight ends having poor weeks. Fortunately for us we were able to hit big on the WR’s and we were able to break even or profit a little depending on your game selection. Overall the weekend was profitable for myself with all of the overlay on Draftpot and Fantasy Draft.
Week 3 will follow the same format as the first two weeks where we have 1 cash and 2 GPP teams on FD/DK for Thursday lock games and 1 total lineup on Fantasy Aces. *****Sunday schedule will be updated on Friday night*****
Week 3 is similar to week 2 in that we aren’t very interested in the Thursday night game other than 1 position. Last week we were interested in the Thursday defenses that ended up scoring well relative to the top projected teams for Suday. This week our Thursday interest is in Odell Beckham Jr. The issue with ODB is we know he is going to be highly owned in these Thursday contests. Our hope is that many users reach for other players in this game as well. Like always one of the tournament teams will likely be fading this game completely.
****OVERLAY ALERT. If you’ve been with us for the first two weeks you saw our message about the new DFS site Draftpot. Draftpot is going to have heavy overlay again this week as they gave away $80,000 in overlay in week 2 and they have ADDED more money to the prize pools for week 3. If you don’t already have a Draftpot account be sure to sign up through our links to get access to $5,000 in freerolls, a free entry to a $10,000 tournament and a 100% deposit bonus up to $1,500. We have added Draftpot projections and lineups to the site for those of you who wish to play. Week 2 and MLB has been basically free money all week. Click the Draftpot link or banner to get started!*****
NFL DFS Week 3 NFL Quaterback Rankings
- Andrew Luck
- Aaron Rodgers
- Russell Wilson
- Tom Brady
- Carson Palmer
- Cam Newton
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Peyton Manning
- Philip Rivers
- Nick Foles
Andrew Luck – Many of you will probably think I’m crazy for listing Andrew Luck as the #1 QB option this week (excluding salary) after watching him throw 5 interceptions and lose a fumble in the first two weeks of the season. Andrew Luck was called out by his head coach after losing at home on Monday Night Football. The Titans pass defense is very weak and Luck definitely has a chip on his shoulder after the first two weeks of the season. The Colts now have 3 very legit options in the passing game with T.Y. Hilton, Andre Johnson and Donte Moncrief that should really open things up for Luck to run a little. I know it’s an odd prediction, but I think Luck will rack up a few rushing yards against this Titans D.
Aaron Rodgers – There isn’t much to say about Rodgers other than he remains one of the safest QB’s in DFS which is why you will pay a premium for him if you want to roster him. If Eddie Lacy is out I do think we can give a slight bump to Rodgers where he challenges Luck for the top overall play. The Chiefs defense is pretty good but Rodgers is the best QB in the game so we aren’t too concerned about Rodgers who still has a very high floor. Rodgers is like Antonio Brown where he will be a top play every single week if you have the cap space to go that route or if you play on Draftpot.
Carson Palmer – Carson Palmer doesn’t carry much name value relative to the other QB’s in the league which is really nice for DFS, especially in tournaments. Palmer had a huge week last week despite the Cardinals scoring 2 defensive touchdowns. This week Palmer gets his turn with the 49ers defense that allowed a huge passing game to Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers in week 2. Palmer is one of the better values at QB this week where his projection ranking significantly outweighs his price ranking across the industry.
Cam Newton – Newton will be a trendy pick in week 3 with many of the projection models having him projected as a top play at home against the Saints. While I do like the matchup, our model is not quite as high on Newton as most so he will be a tournament only play for us for the most part. The thing that is scary about fading Newton is the rushing yards. So far in the first two weeks we have seen Newton look to run a little more than last year which will significantly lower his floor and raise his ceiling if the trend continues. Last week the Saints D was awful against the Bucs so I get why many are on Newton this week. I’m going to take a wait and see approach in cash games and pair him with Greg Olsen in any tournament exposure. ****Updated we are moving towards using Cam Newton in 50% of our cash games on FanDuel****
Philip Rivers/Nick Foles – Two more guys with big upside in week 3 that our model has significantly higher than most of the projection models on the market. Rivers is on the road against the Vikings and Foles is at home against the Steelers. The thing that stands out the most for Nick Foles is the vegas total on this game. It has now climbed to 47.5 which is shockingly high for a game at STL between PIT-STL. Even more telling is the 1 point spread with this total. I don’t always agree with Vegas in NFL games but I do in this one and I like where the money is coming in so far. Foles is another guy whose projection significantly beats his price ranking. Philip Rivers has quite a few mid range weapons on his team that aren’t elite but have big upside. Look for Keenan Allen to have a bounce back week (and be inconsistent all year) in week 3 against the Vikings defense.
NFL DFS Week 3 NFL Running Back Rankings
- Le’Veon Bell
- Marshawn Lynch
- Jamaal Charles
- Adrian Peterson
- Matt Forte
- Latavius Murray
- Justin Forsett
- Jonathan Stewart
- T.J. Yeldon
- James Starks
Le’Veon Bell – Bell is one of the best overall targets in fantasy football every week because of his unique skill set and heavy work load for the Steelers. Bell is going to carry the ball 15-20 times and be targetted an additional 6+ times out of the backfield in the passing game. Bell is also a clear focus in the red zone for the Steelers where he receives nearly 40% of all targets/rushes in the red zone. Bell might go under owned because of the emphasis on QB/TE this week and the name value has declined with the suspension causing him to miss the first two games on the season. Bell is a great target in all formats and an elite tournament play on full PPR sites because of his heavy use in the passing game.
Marshawn Lynch – To be a successful DFS player you must have a poor short term memory. Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks really sucked in Week 2 on the road against the Packers in what seemed like a perfect matchup for beast mode. Lynch has always been an extreme splits guy when it comes to home vs road splits where he performs much better at home. Lynch and the Seahawks are in a very similar situation to Andrew Luck in the Colts… both teams are 0-2 to start the season and both teams get graet matchups with poor defenses. Look for Lynch to be a top 3 running back in week 3.
Latavius Murray – Murray is just an unbelievable athlete who is having success largely based on his athletic ability. This week the Raiders get the Browns who project to be near the bottom of the league on defense. Murray is the clear cut top guy out of the backfield in Oakland this season and his skill set gives him big play upside that we are looking for when targeting a cheaper running back.
James Starks – Starks is only in play if Eddie Lacy is out this week. The issue we have here is the Packers play the Monday Night Football game so it’s very likely that we won’t have a 100% answer on the status of Eddie Lacy before contests lock on Sunday. Starks is a near must play at basically miniumum salary across the industry. The big issue I have with Starks is while I think he will do fine racking up rushing yards and have plenty of touches, I’m worried that Rodgers will take over completely in the red zone and remove most of the scoring opportunities from Starks. ****Update looks like Eddie Lacy will play so remove all Starks exposure to GPP ONLY****
Danny Woodhead – Woodhead is the PPR specialist that I like this week with Philip Rivers. Our model is a little higher on Rivers than most this week which is something I like to see. I like the idea of pairing Woodhead with Rivers in GPP tournaments this week which allows you to spend up on some of the other higher priced core players we are intersted in.
NFL DFS Week 3 NFL Wide Receiver Rankings
- Antonio Brown
- Julio Jones
- Odell Beckham Jr.
- Julian Edelman
- Randall Cobb
- Demaryius Thomas
- Calvin Johnson
- T.Y. Hilton
- A.J. Green
- Emmanuel Sanders
Antonio Brown – Brown had another huge week for us in week 2 and he is once again the top projected WR in our model. I should probably just leave this pasted here for the rest of the season because he is going to project as the #1 WR in probably all but 3 weeks this season. However, I do think we can knock him down a touch this week as the gap between Brown and the rest of the top tier isn’t nearly as wide this week with the return of Le’Veon Bell. It’s reasonable to assume that Brown will take a slight hit in usage with Bell back which means we will be relying a little more on the actual touchdown scoring for Brown’s upside in week 3.
Julio Jones – The wide receiver position is defintely the reason why we have not lost money early this season because we have been on the right core group each of the first two weeks and they have performed the way they are supposed to. Julio Jones is one of the top plays on all sites but definitely on PPR sites where he is targetted heavily in the passing game. Jones is the kind of guy who is going to burn a lot of people at some point in the season when a team decides they are going to make Roddy White or someone else beat them at all costs. On paper and in our model Julio is a top play this week but we do tend to be cautious with Matt Ryan and Julio in road games. This week they get the Cowboys defense that (for whatever reason… luck or skill) limited Odell Beckham Jr in week 1 and Jordan Matthews (until last drive in garbage time) to what could have been their lowest fantasy outputs of the year. I think Jones is better suited as a GPP play in week 3 on Salary cap sites. He is obviously still a great target on the full PPR non cap sites like Draftpot.
Odell Beckham Jr. – Our prediction on Beckham was pretty much dead on last week as we thought he would have a huge bounce back game after a poor performance against the Cowboys in week 1. Odell Beckham is a young receiver who loves the spotlight and that is exactly what he gets tonight on Thursday Night Football with all eyes on him. Beckham is basically the only player we have any interest in for the Thursday start leagues and the fact is we are probably overpaying for him a little but the high upside and ownership levels give validity to the play in Thursday cash games.
Donte Moncrief/T.Y. Hilton/Andre Johnson – We are obviously pretty high on Andrew Luck having a bounce back game in week 3 against the Titans and a lot of his value depends on these three receivers against the Titans secondary. Donte Moncrief is having a great season so far despite the 0-2 record and Hilton has flashed big upside in both of the first two weeks in significantly tougher matchups. The thing that we have to remember here is Luck and the Colts are notorious for starting slow and they did just play what might be two of the better defenses in the league against the Bills and the Jets. The Titans defense actually projects to be a little worse this year than last year when Luck threw for nearly 400 yards and 4 TD’s. Moncrief and Hilton are easily the two top targets but don’t sleep on Andre Johnson in tournaments this week where he could have a big day scoring his first TD as a Colt.
Randall Cobb – Cobb is another guy whose had injury concerns early in the year but he is still the most talented weapon Aaron Rodgers has. One thing we love about Cobb is he has always seen a significant number of the red zone targets from Rodgers because he is one of the guys Rodgers trusts the most in the shorter yardage passing game. With Jordy Nelson on the sidelines and Eddie Lacy possibly out, you can bet that Rodgers and the Packers will be throwing nearly every play in the red zone this week. Cobb makes a great alternative to Brown and Julion Jones in cash games this week.
Julian Edelman – Edelman was our cover boy last week in a huge 2 TD game. Edelman was the key player for us last week and he will be “in play” almost every week on the PPR sites because of the heavy target volume he receives. More of a tournament play this week than a core play but I won’t fault you for using him in cash games considering the way Brady and the Patriots are playing right now.
NFL DFS Week 3 NFL Tight End Rankings
- Rob Gronkowski
- Jimmy Graham
- Travis Kelce
- Greg Olsen
- Jordan Reed
- Tyler Eifert
- Jason Witten
- Martellus Bennett
- Jared Cook
- Heath Miller
Rob Gronkowski – Gronk had a great game again last week against the Bills. Gronk will be the top play every week except the bye week this season. Week 3 is the week where we likely take a break for the top tier WR’s and focus that attention on RB1 and TE. The gap between Gronkowski and any other player at the position is rather large, making Gronk a top target in ALL formats in week 3. We know Gronk will have above average ownership levels but he truly is a player who can really hurt your week if you don’t have some exposure.
Travis Kelce – Kelce is the fake Gronk that has a lot of upside for a KC team that lacks quality WR options. Kelce has quickly become the favorite target of QB Alex Smith. Kelce becomes a tournament play for us this week due to the emphasis we are placing on Gronkowski.
Jimmy Graham – Graham gets his best matchup of the season so far but he is significantly less valuable in cash games with his new role in the Seattle offense. There is going to be a multiple TD week sometime soon for Graham but it’s tough to say when that will come so he is better off in touranments or as a contrarian cash play if you want to play with fire and fade Gronk.
Jordan Reed – Reed is a qaulity option for your Thursday start games if you’re paying up for Odell Beckham and would rather pay at QB or RB than pay for Gronk. Reed should see a lot of check down targets from Cousins tonight againt the Giants pass D.
NFL DFS Week 3 Defense Rankings
- Seattle Seahawks
- New England Patriots
- Houston Texans
- Denver Broncos
- New York Jets
No surprise here to see the Seahawks as the #1 defense as they get a home game against the Bears who will be playing without Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery. The Seahawks will be a popular pick this week but for good reason. If you have the cap to pay up for a defense then Seattle is by far the best option. The New England Patriots represent one of the better defensive options this week if you agree with the vegas lines at all. The Patriots are 4700 on FanDuel which offers $600 of cap savings compared to Seattle. Also target the Jets (4500), Broncos (4600) and Texans (5000) in all formats.
NFL DFS Week 3 Kicker Rankings
- Stephen Gostkowski
- Mason Crosby
- Josh Lambo
- Josh Brown
- Steven Hauschka
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