Thursday, July 23rd DFS MLB Plays
Short slate with one clear cut option at pitcher… I’m playing 70% of my normal volume tonight.
- Clayton Kershaw
- Francisco Liriano
- Tyson Ross
- Lance McCullers
- Trevor Bauer
Clayton Kershaw is obviously the top play in all formats tonight despite the insane $13k and $14.5k price tags on FanDuel and DraftKings. With only 7 games on the slate the gap between Kershaw and the next tier is large enough that you will definitely want Kershaw exposure tonight in your cash games. The Dodgers are a huge -250 favorite and Kershaw has a K prop of 8.5 tonight and I like the over. The Dodgers bats should provide plenty of run support to get Kershaw a W. Francisco Liriano is next in line and we all know how wild he can be… he is typically really good or really bad without much in between. This is a weak Nationals lineup relative to what they could run out if everyone was healthy. The Pirates bats matchup well with Doug Fister so I do tend to agree with the vegas line on this one with the Pirates having a rather large win probability. Tyson Ross, Lance McCullers and Trevor Bauer are all extremely close with Ross having the best environment to pitch in against another team that has been crushed by injuries. My only worry with Ross is walking guys and allowing stolen bases but the Padres should win this one. Occasionally on a short slate you will have to use pitchers that make you uncomfortable and tonight is one of those situations on multiple SP sites.
- Jonathan Lucroy – Lucroy ranks as the #1 catcher in the model tonight against a rookie making his big league debut at Chase Field. The park shift isn’t large but it is positive and the Brewers have the highest implied run total of any team tonight. Lucroy always carries an elite lineup spot so he is in play regardless of matchup on a short slate.
- Evan Gattis – Gattis is a nice tournament play who hits his HR’s in bunches and he hit one last night. The Astros are built to hit LHP and they get Wade Miley tonight. No reason to consider Gattis in cash but he is a must with your HOU stacks if you’re going that direction.
- Yasmani Grandal – Grandal slides up to the 5th spot in the order tonight on the road against the Mets. As many of you know we love targeting road teams for that guaranteed 9th inning AB for the team. Lucroy is clearly above Grandal but I’m fine with Grandal in cash.
1st Base Rankings
- Adam Lind – Lind ranks as the #1 option at 1st base in the model and he is the #1 overall hitter in the adjusted wOBA model. Lind is having a nice year for the Brewers and he is in the great spot tonight against a pitcher making his debut.
- Paul Goldschmidt – Goldy is likely to go way under owned tonight as he is in a bit of a slump and the majority of players looking to spend on pitching with Kershaw.
- Carlos Santana – I love the Indians lefties tonight in a tough matchup (on paper) with the shark. I love to target the Indians at home and the White Sox bullpen just isn’t very good.
- Travis Ishikawa – Nice value play if he continues to hit 5th tonight. The park is obviously poor but its a short slate and he is a very talented hitter.
- Adrian Gonzalez – Love these Dodgers lefties tonight against Colon and I really love the Dodgers when they get to that Mets bullpen… we are all familiar with how poor the Mets bullpen is.
2nd Base Rankings
- Jose Altuve – Altuve is the clear cut top play at home against a LHP if you have the cap space to roster him. It’s going to be tough with Kershaw at 13k on FD and 14.5k on DK.
- Scooter Gennett – Very interested to see the lineup spot for Scooter tonight… crossing my fingers on top 5 spot but we will see. Great matchup for Scooter
- Jason Kipnis – Kipnis is another top play that will definitely go under owned tonight against the Shark with these other top plays being more popular.
- Neil Walker – Hitting 2nd against Doug Fister is a decent matchup but a poor park back home at PNC.
3rd Base Rankings
- Justin Turner – Turner is the top play at 3B against Bartolo Colon. 3B will depend largely on lineup order tonight.
- Matt Carpenter – The Cardinals have been frustrating and the Royals are obviously not a team you want to pick on very often but its a short slate and Carpenter is the most talented player at the position and Young isn’t a very hard throwing RHP. Fine play in all formats tonight.
- Aramis Ramirez – I think it’s pretty clear that you should be targeting the Brewers tonight.
- Jake Lamb
- Mike Moustakas – Moustakas was great for us last night and he will go under owned again tonight.
- Carlos Corrrea – Clear cut top play if salary is no issue. Correa has slowed a little but he is still a great young player with a lot of talent around him right now.
- Marwin Gonzalez – Gonzalez makes the most sense at SS tonight if he is hitting 2nd against LHP like he has been recently.
- Jhonny Peralta – Peralta should have relatively low ownership levels tonight in a poor offensive environment.
- Jean Segura – Lineup spot is critical here but we love the Brewers tonight.
- Francisco Lindor – Not the best matchup but the lineup spot is elite in a stacked lineup.
Outfield Tier 1:
Michael Brantley, David Peralta, Carlos Gomez, Brandon Moss, Joc Pederson, Khris Davis, Ryan Braun, Gerardo Parra, Jason Heyward
Outfield Tier 2:
Matt Kemp, Ender Inciarte, Gregory Polanco, Yasmany Tomas, Adam Eaton, Randal Grichuk, Matt Holliday, A.J. Pollock
Mike’s Top Five Team Stacks
Brewers – Parra, Lucroy, Lind, Gomez, Braun, Davis
Astros – Altuve, Correa, Gattis, Tucker, Rasmus
Indians – Brantley, Kipnis, Santana, Moss, Lindor
Dodgers – Pederson, Gonzalez, Grandal, Ethier
Pirates – Walker, Polanco, Ishikawa, Marte
Be sure to use the our optimal lineups when they are posted later this afternoon.