Tuesday, July 7th DFS MLB Plays
We will be playing roughly 60% of our normal volume tonight due to the combination of weather concerns and the Coors Field slate. Rain games include: SD@PIT, HOU@CLE, ARI@TEX and LAA@COL. With the rain we lose multiple viable starting pitching options with Kluber, Liriano and Ross. All 3 of these pitchers rank in the top 6 overall for us tonight so we are losing a good portion of the top tier pitching. We are projecting sever weather in the ARI-TEX game which is the 2nd best hitting environment tonight behind Coors Field where we are also dealing with rain.
- Max Scherzer
- Corey Kluber – Weather risk
- Francisco Liriano – Weather risk
- Johnny Cueto – I like Cueto but projecting a win is nearly impossible against Max.
- Taijuan Walker
- Tyson Ross – Weather risk
- Brett Anderson
- Sonny Gray
Max Scherzer is the clear cut top play on a night with several viable options at pitcher. The issue we run into here is the other options are dealing with some major weather concerns for starting pitching. Corey Kluber is offered at a nice discount to Scherzer but the weather in CLE is looking like several delays and possibly an early PPD call so we will be removing Kluber from consideration pretty early this evening. Francisco Liriano is next in line and that’s absolutely terrifying and a big reason why we are playing at a reduced volume tonight. Everything is normal on our end, we are just forced into high variance situations because of the weather conditions across the country tonight. Taijuan Walker is another example of high variance situation tonight as he takes on the Tigers. Brett Anderson is cash game viable tonight given the large win probability for the Dodgers against the Phillies. Anderson is a very average pitcher but he gets a weak offense in a pitchers park with great run support potential behind him.
- Stephen Vogt – Vogt is the top play at catcher in a large park shift for LHB at Yankee Stadium. Vogt and Grandal are both great targets for cash games. If Grandal falls back to 7th in the order then Vogt is a clear cut top play.
- Yasmani Grandal – Grandal gets to hit left handed again tonight which the side we prefer. Hoping for another game hitting 5th tonight but who knows with the Dodgers lineup he could be anywhere from 4-8 tonight.
- Michael McKenry – Love McKenry in tournaments if he gets the start (he probably won’t).
- Jonathan Lucroy
1st Base Rankings
- Albert Pujols – Pujols is the top play at 1B and he is priced liek it. Tournaments only for us tonight with the weather issues.
- Wilin Rosario – Rosario crushes LHP and gets to hit in the best hitters park in baseball tonight. Rosario can be played at catcher on DraftKings which really helps his value.
- Paul Goldschmidt – Goldy has a very average matchup tonight but he is a great play in tournaments. You can probably grab him at 5% or less owned in tournaments tonight.
- Adrian Gonzalez – Gonzalez didn’t disappoint last night with a HR. Gonzalez is a streaky hitter who is seeing the ball well and enjoying the start of a home stand in LA. Gonzalez is a great target tonight with a more than fair price tag on both sites.
- David Ortiz – Ortiz has a better hitting environment than Gonzalez which makes them pretty equal in my mind. They rank right next to each other in the model.
- Ike Davis – Ike Davis is a nice contrarian play at 1B at min price on FanDuel. Cash game viable if top 6.
2nd Base Rankings
- Ben Zobrist – Zobrist… another Oakland lefty taking advantage of the park shift and the short porch at Yankee Stadium. Zobrist is very familiar with this ball park from his time spent with the Tampa Bay Rays. The price tag is fairly average but he does hold the platoon advantage throughout the game as a switch hitter.
- Johnny Giavotella – Giavotella has seen an increase in price but he is still a nice value play if he continues to lead-off for the Angels tonight at Coors Field.
- Jeff Baker – Baker is basically a punt play that ranks very well against LHP. There is pinch hit risk most of the time but he is a fine play in tournaments.
- DJ LeMahieu – DJ is in play if he secures a top 4 spot against LHP like we expect.
3rd Base Rankings
- Josh Donaldson – Josh Donaldson is the obvious top play against a LHP in a hitters park. The price is pretty fair but still expensive. Good night to get Donaldson at a lower ownership % thanks to Coors and top tier pitching.
- Nolan Arenado – Tournaments only due to price. Obviously we like him at home against a LHP.
- Adrian Beltre
- Matt Carpenter – Carpenter is struggling right now but I refuse to buy in to his struggles and I will continue to play him while his price tag is where it is. Rookie pitcher should be just what he needs to turn it around tonight.
- David Freese
- Pablo Sandoval – Lineup position is key here but the Panda is an elite value if hitting top 5 at just 2500 in a good park. Sandoval becomes even more valuable if the weather continues to be an issue closer to lock.
- Troy Tulowitzki – Tulo is the obvious top play at SS and a top 2 overall hitter in the model tonight. Tulo has just crushed LHP throughout his career and he has the highest probability of reaching base of any player playing tonight.
- Elvis Andrus – Andrus typically slides up in the order against LHP… if he is top 4 tonight he becomes a core target if the weather looks clear enough to use hitters.
- Erick Aybar – Aybar has seen a big bump in price for this series but he is still a top target at SS in an elite hitting environment as a switch hitter hitting from his strong side.
- Xander Bogaerts – Xander has seen a nice uptick in performance since he has moved to the 3 hole.. Like Sandoval, Xander becomes an even better play as the weather risks increase across the league tonight.
Mike Trout is easily the top play and the #1 overall hitter in the model in a huge park shift at Coors Field. He is expensive but he is definitely the top overall hitter.
Outfield Tier 1:
Mike Trout, Joc Pederson, Jose Bautista, Nelson Cruz, Ryan Braun, Dexter Fowler, Josh Reddick, Kole Calhoun, Billy Burns
Outfield Tier 2:
Delino DeShields, Mark Trumbo, Matt Joyce, Andre Ethier, Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Jason Heyward, Ryan Rua
Mike’s Top Four Team Stacks
Angels – Trout, Pujols, Calhoum, Giavotella, Aybar, Freese, Joyce
Rockies, Tulowitzki, Arenado, LeMahieu, Rosario
Athletics – Reddick, Vogt, Zobrist, Davis
Dodgers – Pederson, Gonzalez, Grandal, Turner, Ethier
Rangers – DeShields, Beltre, Odor, Andrus, Fielder
Be sure to use the our optimal lineups when they are posted later this afternoon.