MLB

Wednesday DFS MLB Plays

DFS MLB Plays

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of RotoMinds Daily MLB Plays. A split slate today leaves us with 11 games to work with for the late slate. The Coors Field game was included in the early slate so we don’t have to worry about that game tonight.

  1. Matt Harvey
  2. Jake Arrieta
  3. Trevor Bauer
  4. Jose Quintana
  5. Tyson Ross
  6. Jesse Hanh
  7. Jered Weaver

Matt Harvey is the clear cut top play tonight with the largest strikeout prop of any player tonight in a home game against the Giants who will be playing without Hunter Pence tonight. Matt Harvey should be the focus in cash games. Jake Arrieta is next in line but draws a tough matchup with a good hitting team on the road. Arrieta is an elite tournament play tonight with big upside. Jose Quintana is another great tournament play against the Astros. The Astros are pretty average vs LHP but they strikeout a lot so there is always upside. Trevor Bauer gets a big boost with Nelson Cruz out of the lineup tonight for Seattle. He is now in consideration for cash games on FanDuel against this Seattle lineup due to the win probability. 

  • Miguel Montero
  • Francisco Cervelli
  • Yasmani Grandal
  • Carlos Perez
  • Salvador Perez

Catcher is pretty disgusting tonight for an 11 game slate with the most talented players facing quality opposing pitchers. No catcher ranks in the top 25 overall in the model tonight so the best move here is to punt with a player either high in the batting order or on a team in a positive park shift. Miguel Montero is easily the best player in this group.

1st Base Rankings

  • Anthony Rizzo
  • Paul Goldschmidt
  • Mike Napoli
  • Jose Abreu
  • Chris Davis

Anthony Rizzo is the top play at 1B tonight and the #2 overall hitter tonight behind only Mike Trout. Rizzo gets a mathcup with Shane Greene at Comerica Park. Greene really struggles with LHB which gives Rizzo a .422 RotoMinds adjusted wOBA in tonight’s matchup. Rizzo is fairly expensive but still a great play in all formats tonight. You could say Paul Goldschmidt is the top play and I wouldn’t argue with you at all… Goldy has a nice matchup with southpaw Brett Anderson. The primary factor pushing Rizzo ahead of Goldy is the negative park shift for the Diamondbacks tonight at Dodger Stadium. Goldschmidt has a ridiculous hard contact rate at 48.6% which is the highest of any hitter playing tonight. The Red Sox are very frustrating but we can’t ignore Mike Napoli’s individual success with LHP in his career. Napoli is a more cost effective alternative to Rizzo and Goldy.

2nd Base Rankings

  • Robinson Cano
  • Jason Kipnis
  • Dustin Pedroia

Robinson Cano grabs the top spot at 2B tonight thanks to a nice park shift and a large weather boost tonight in Cleveland. I will be the first to admit that I absolutely hate playing Robinson Cano on my teams because he seems to be the worlds best rally killing GIDP specialist. However, Cano is 2300 on FanDuel and the hard contact numbers are there…. at 2300 he is very close to a must play. Jason Kipnis is next in line and is literally double the price of Robinson Cano… Kipnis is an elite tournament play tonight who has some pretty large home vs road splits in favor of his home park tonight. Finally we will look for some Dustin Pedroia exposure in a matchup with a familiar (to him) LHP in a good park.

3rd Base Rankings

  • Kris Bryant
  • Justin Turner
  • Kyle Seager
  • Mike Moustakas

Kris Bryant earns the top play tonight against Shane Greene with a .401 RotoMinds adjusted wOBA. Bryant ranks very well and holds “the other platoon” advantage tonight where his fly ball tendencies matchup very well with Shane Greene’s ground ball tendencies. Greene doesn’t miss many bats so we should expect hard, line drive contact from Bryant tonight. Kyle Seager is next due to the park and weather shift but the matchup isn’t the best with Bauer who is tough to hit when he is “on”. Also consider Mike Moustakas who has a small sample BvP and decent pitch profile numbers tonight. A lot of the value in Moustakas is tied to the price point and the lineup position where he is hitting 2nd for the Royals.

ShortStop Rankings

  • Xander Bogearts
  • Brad Miller
  • Starlin Castro
  • Erick Aybar
  • Alexei Ramirez

Shortstop is very similar to catch tonight where no player really ranks in the top 25 overall. Xander Bogaerts earns our top spot tonight in a matchup against a LHP. Xander holds a special spot in our hearts thanks to the big night he rewarded us with back in April against a LHP. We like to target Xander against LHP when he moves up in the lineup. Xander has a .355 Rotominds adjusted wOBA tonight. Also consider Brad Miller depending on lineup spot and Starlin Castro because of the general team game script. Aybar is viable when leading off despite the negative park shift at TB. Alexei Ramirez deserves a look if he continues to hit 2nd against a young pitcher making a spot start on the road.

Outfield Rankings

Mike Trout is the #1 OF play and the #1 overall hitter in the model tonight. Trout is dealing with a negative park shift in Tampa Bay but he is still the top overall play with some nice BvP numbers in the small sample. Trout matches up well here (and everywhere) with the pitch values and is a strong play in all formats if you have the cap to spend.

Outfield Tier 1:

Hanley Ramirez, Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Michael Brantley, Nelson Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, Justin Upton, Chris Coghlan, Brandon Moss, Dexter Fowler, Matt Kemp

Outfield Tier 2:

Kole Calhoun, Seth Smith, Melky Cabrera, Avisail Garcia, Will Venable, Alex Guerrero, Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain

Mike’s Top Five Team Stacks

Indians – Kipnis, Brantley, Moss, Santana

Cubs – Rizzo, Bryant, Montero, Fowler, Coghlan

Red Sox – Pedroia, Bogaerts, Napoli, Ramirez

Royals – Moustakas, Morales, Cain, Gordon

Dodgers – Gonzalez, Kendrick, Pederson, Puig

Good luck!

Be sure to use the our optimal lineups when they are posted later this afternoon.

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